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Investor Paul Meeks buying Cerebras CBRS

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As a contrarian technology investor, I look for opportunities when stocks fall out of favor. Right now, Cerebras Systems has my attention. When the Sunnyvale, California-based AI chipmaker went public in May , I liked its technology but thought the stock was grossly overvalued. Shares surged from their $185 IPO price to as high as $386, but I was pooh-poohing the stock at those levels and even published a report warning investors against buying. Now with the stock down roughly 72% from its peak, I see a very different opportunity. Key points Cerebras’ innovative Wafer-Scale Engine chip design could give it a competitive edge in AI computing. Company’s technology is well-suited for AI inference, one of the industry’s biggest growth opportunities. Customer relationships and a substantial backlog could fuel rapid revenue growth. Cerebras shares have been caught up in the broader semiconductor sell-off, but there are also company-specific concerns weighing on the stock. One of the biggest involves OpenAI, which accounts for approximately $20 billion of Cerebras’ contracted business. Speculation that OpenAI used Nvidia chips rather than Cerebras hardware for a new AI model have raised questions about the relationship. I think those fears are overblown. Cerebras is still building out its computing capacity, and it’s entirely possible OpenAI needed to rely on Nvidia in the meantime. That doesn’t change my belief in the long-term value of the Cerebras relationship. Why I’m buying A potentially groundbreaking chip design I’ve been following semiconductor technology for a long time, and Cerebras’ Wafer-Scale Engine is one of the most exciting innovations I’ve seen in years. Unlike traditional processors, Cerebras’ chip packs enormous computing power and bandwidth onto a single piece of silicon. That allows it to process vast amounts of information quickly without constantly moving data between separate chips. This design gives Cerebras a real competitive advantage. AI inference is where the opportunity is moving For years, the AI race was largely about training bigger and more sophisticated models. Now I think the real opportunity is inference: putting those models to work generating content and performing tasks. That’s where Cerebras shines. Its technology is well suited for fast inference, giving it an opportunity to challenge Nvidia’s GPUs. CBRS YTD mountain Cerebras, YTD I also see an opportunity for Cerebras to complement Nvidia’s technology rather than simply compete with it. Through a partnership with Amazon Web Services , Cerebras is developing an approach called inference disaggregation, which splits the work between two types of chips. AWS’s Trainium chips handle the initial processing of a request, known as “prefill,” while Cerebras handles “decode,” or generating the response. I think this could open up a much bigger market for Cerebras. Major customers, massive growth potential Cerebras has built relationships with some of the biggest names in technology, including OpenAI, AMD, AWS and Flex. What stands out is the size of its contracted business relative to its current revenue. The company has approximately $25 billion in remaining performance obligations, including about $20 billion tied to OpenAI. That’s striking compared with the roughly $210 million in core revenue it generated last quarter. Cerebras still needs to expand its computing capacity to fulfill those commitments, but I expect revenue to more than triple to approximately $2.8 billion in 2027, with the company also turning cash-flow positive. Why now? Shares are trading around $107 now. I see the sell-off as an attractive entry point into a company with innovative technology and substantial growth potential. My price target at Freedom Capital Markets is $209, implying roughly 91% upside from current levels. Bottom line There are risks. Cerebras still needs to execute on its large customer commitments and prove that its technology can compete successfully in a market dominated by Nvidia. But the market is focusing too much on the near-term uncertainty and not enough on what Cerebras could become. I was warning investors against buying this stock when it first went public and shares were soaring. Now that shares have plunged, I’m on the other side of the trade. That’s the beauty of being a contrarian investor: finding opportunity where others see risk. Paul Meeks is the Managing Director and Head of Technology Research of Freedom Capital Markets . Disclosures: Meeks does not own shares personally or through the firm. All opinions expressed by the [CNBC Pro contributors] are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. This content is provided as part of our editorial output for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax or legal advice or a recommendation to buy any security or other financial asset. The content is general in nature and does not reflect any individual’s unique personal circumstances. The above content might not be suitable for your particular circumstances. Before making any financial decisions, you should strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment advisor. THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. 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